The Dunning-Kruger Effect. Confidence vs. Competence

A cognitive bias where people with low ability at a task tend to overestimate their ability.

A teenager gets their driver's license. After a few weeks of driving familiar routes, they feel they have completely mastered it and are a better driver than their parents (Peak of 'Mount Stupid').

They become overconfident and may take unnecessary risks. Their first near-accident, a car pulling out unexpectedly, a patch of ice, shatters this illusion, and they suddenly feel terrified and incompetent behind the wheel (Valley of Despair).

What is the Dunning-Kruger Effect and what does it have to do with confidence?

First described by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, this effect explains why novices can exhibit such baffling overconfidence.

A person who has just started learning a skill (like chess, a musical instrument, or management) has not yet been exposed to the vastness of that field. Their small amount of knowledge feels like a large percentage of the whole, leading them to feel overly confident, a state often called "Mount Stupid."

As they learn more, they begin to recognize the complexity and how much they don't know, causing their confidence to plummet into the "Valley of Despair." This is a key part of having a strong Circle of Competence, as you can only truly stay within your circle if you have the intellectual humility to recognize where your knowledge ends.

Only with continued learning do competence and confidence begin to rise in tandem.

How can I develop a more accurate sense of confidence?

Be extremely wary of your own confidence when you are new to a subject. Assume you are less competent than you feel.

Conversely, don't be discouraged when your confidence drops as you learn more; it's a sign that you're beginning to understand the true scope of the topic.

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