Falsifiability. How to tell if someone is lying to you

If a belief cannot be disproven by any conceivable evidence, it is not a scientific claim but an article of faith.

Your friend claims a particular café has "the best coffee in the city." This is a matter of taste and not falsifiable; you can't prove it wrong.

However, if they claim the café has "the cheapest coffee in the city," you can now test it. You can gather data on coffee prices from other cafés. If you find even one that is cheaper, their claim is proven false.

By changing the claim from a subjective opinion to an objective statement, it became falsifiable. This is especially important in business.

What is Falsifiability and how does it help me detect lies?

Introduced by philosopher Karl Popper, the principle of falsifiability is a cornerstone of the scientific method. It draws a clear line between science and pseudoscience.

Anyone can create a theory that is so vague and flexible that it can explain anything. The real test of a strong theory is that it makes specific, bold predictions and, in doing so, risks being wrong. It must stick its neck out.

By defining exactly what evidence would prove it false, a theory becomes robust and open to genuine scrutiny. This principle is a powerful tool to understand how to tell if someone is lying, as a lie is a claim that can be proven false.

This is a crucial concept to understand alongside Confirmation Bias, which reminds us of our tendency to only look for evidence that proves us right, rather than looking for evidence that might prove a claim wrong.

Why is it so important to ask: "What would prove me wrong?"

Anyone can create a theory that is so vague and flexible that it can explain anything (e.g., "the financial system will collapse").

These vague statements often appeal to our emotions (our System 1), and since they cannot be disproven, they can keep us from acting for a long time, causing us to miss opportunities.

How Can I apply falsifiability to my own beliefs?:

When you or someone else holds a strong belief, don't just ask,

• What evidence confirms this?

Instead, ask the much harder question:

• What specific evidence, if we were to see it, would disprove that belief wrong?"

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